Monday, November 30, 2015

A slower world

I drove to Mumbai a few days ago for a meeting that was scheduled rather early in the morning. As it turned out, the meeting had been rescheduled to another day and someone had forgotten to recheck the schedule. As recently as a few years ago, I would have been frustrated and angry at the waste of time. This time, I was surprisingly placid. I was enjoying the scenery on my drive back to Pune.

I have mixed feelings about this: on one hand, I find myself wondering if I am losing my edge, if I am beginning to accept life as it comes with a little too much acquiescence, and on the other hand, I also notice that I do not get stressed easily any more. I also realized as I was staring out the window that getting stressed does not get the work done any faster; it just works your heart and brain beyond design specifications. Wish I had realized this twenty years ago.

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Change is in the air

I was pulled over for speeding yesterday and what struck me was how polite, civilized and upright the policemen were. Their motorcycle pulled up alongside me and after I rolled down my window, they informed me that my speed had been rather high. I apologized immediately and said that I agree, and that I did indeed get carried away with the joy of driving.

They asked to see my licence and told me about how other people on the road might be drunk or at fault in some other way, but my speed could cause them to lose their lives. I could not disagree with that. I believe they were trying to gauge whether I had been drinking and it must have become apparent within a couple of minutes of conversation that I was clearly sober.

I asked them what the fine would be and expected them to prepare a ticket or challan or negotiate a settlement. But then something truly amazing happened. One of two policemen said that I would remember this incident better if there was no money involved. And he is right. Not only will I remember this incident, I will also remember how courteous they were.

Change is in the air.

Sloppiness starts at home.

I was at a social event a few days ago where the catering service was exceptional. Not only was the food delectable, the presentation was exceptional too. The plating was elegant and even the buffet spread had been laid out tastefully.

Within a few minutes of the buffet opening for service however, the scene had become less than appetizing. People had ladled the food not only onto their plates but also onto the table and for good measure had sprinkled a few specks of dal and sambar onto the plates and bowls laid out for service.

It is interesting how inconsiderate Indians can be to their fellow citizens in a bid to save a few seconds. I have tried this and I know that it takes no more than a few seconds extra to be careful when ladling the food from the serving bowl to your own plate. Slapping some dal over to your bowl can be achieved in about 5 seconds and doing it well can be done in 8 or 9. As anyone who has eaten at a buffet surely knows, many Indians slap their food over. There is no joy in precision, in leaving the buffet table beautiful for others.It is no surprise that this desi attitude filters into our engineering or our work.

What really bothers me, is that this time saved is not exactly being put to good use. Punctuality is not one of our virtues either.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Our own little world

I had a flash of clarity yesterday about how people from elite engineering schools and B Schools live in their own little world; cocooned from stark reality.

We have been recruiting at B Schools and Engineering colleges in the last few days, and I have been griping about the unsuitability of these candidates; moaning about how they cannot speak well and complaining about how engineers do not seem to know the basics of engineering.

And then yesterday, I met a classmate who has been doing some really good work in primary education, and is now thinking of expanding outside metros and tier 1 cities into smaller towns. He had just returned from visiting a few schools in small towns and was telling us about the appalling conditions there. Schools had English teachers who could not speak English and Maths teachers who did not really understand the Maths. They had learned how to solve the problems in the text book by rote and that is all they taught.

I can now imagine how the more ambitious kids in such schools work very hard and put a lot of genuine effort into what they think is expected of them - learning by rote. They do well in the state board exams and then make it to elite engineering colleges. Of course, they haven't really learned any Maths or Physics. A few years later, they end up on an interview panel with someone like me only to be written off as incompetent.

Here we are blaming the kids when we should be doing something about those incompetent teachers.


Friday, November 27, 2015

Wilderness

Just got back from three days on a beach near Alibag where I had patchy phone coverage and terrible internet connectivity. I realized during these three days that our addiction to mobile phones and the internet, just like our addiction to television, is not difficult to break.

I wonder if I am brave enough to announce that I can live without mobile phones for some time. It might even give a few snoops some moments where they wonder how a person can drop off the face of the earth for a few days and then appear again. If a large number of us switch off our mobile phones and internet for a few days every month, perhaps Google's ability to track not just our whereabouts, but also what we are doing might become less than omnipotent.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Boat people

I have been reading a little bit more about the EU migrant crisis and chanced upon this article. When I started reading the article, I had no idea that EU countries were paying Col. Muammar Gadaffi to keep Africans from boarding boats bound for the EU. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy actually signed an agreement with Gadaffi in 2009 pledging $5 Billion over 25 years, that is about $ 200 million per year as 'Compensation for its 30 year occupation of the country which ended in 1943'.
Interestingly, $500 million of that 5 Billion was for Electronic Surveillance equipment to be installed on the Libyan coastline according to this article. After Gadaffi was killed in 2011, the one check was removed and the floodgates opened.

According to human rights activist Ajamu Baraka, the EU migrant crisis is a direct consequence of the colonial practices of western European nations, namely Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom. For decades, western European countries exploited the natural resources of Africa and enslaved their people to work in the mines so to speak. Colonial Raj ended when the cost of extracting those resources and transferring them back to Europe proved to be more expensive than it was worth; in effect leaving the native people alienated them from their erstwhile natural lifestyle - whether it was agriculture or hunting. It is these people, displaced and without means to earn a living, who are now in desperation boarding vessels for the land where all their wealth moved to.

Has the EU, by this reckoning, come face to face with its own Karma?

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Fly the MRJ

November 11 has been a special day. A company I respect tremendously has gone back to doing something they haven't done for the last 60 years. Mitsubishi has built an aircraft again and on November 11 the Mitsubishi Regional Jet took to the skies for the first time. After a perfect sortie and a perfect landing, Mitsubishi will now proceed to file for FAA approval and soon the MRJ will be available for commercial purchase.

The last time Mitsubishi built an aircraft, it slaughtered the competition: the little plane, the A6M was known to its enemies as The Zero.

Airbus and Embraer need to be afraid. Very afraid.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Form over function

The Lamborghini Countach has been the poster child for car porn ever since I was a teenager. I had a poster on my bedroom wall from the time I turned 12 until the time hormones kicked in. Through my teen years and then through my 20s, I have always lusted after a Lamborghini.

One should never meet one's heroes, they say, for reality has a tough time keeping up with expectations. So also for cars. Read any review of the Countach on line and you will learn that it is a horrid car to drive and worse to own.

The Countach is in reality a poster child of the principle of Form over Function. Chris Bangle once said, "The Italians design their cars with flair. And they don't let engineering get in the way."

I should have learned my lesson after reading about the Countach. But nope. I had to go and learn this for myself.

Lesson learned. Next vehicle: Japanese.

Frustration

My German Humpty Dumpty has been sitting in the service station since Tuesday morning. All the Kaiser's horses and all the Kaiser's men could not get it to work again. They finally gave up on trying to make the touchpad work and sent the car back to me this evening.

However, it has come back with a new problem. The AC blower now makes a whirring noise. The driver who delivered it tried to act like "yeh to sab gaadi mein aata hain". Unfortunately for him, I had a few phone numbers saved on my smartphone. They have asked me to send it back on Monday morning and I suppose it will sit there for few days. I do hope it does not come back with yet another problem.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Fruit and Jam

I remember having read somewhere that once you drop a bad habit for a better one, your mind ceases to find the old habit very enjoyable. To test out this hypothesis, I tried watching TV a few days ago and chanced upon Seinfeld playing on a certain channel. After a month of no TV and using all that time reading or riding, TV now seems dreary. Seinfeld , a show I used to enjoy once upon a time, I did not find funny at all. To be honest, I found the mindless banter between George and Elaine and Jerry to be rather juvenile. I watched an episode of Two and Half Men and ditto: not a single laugh or guffaw ensued. Not even a smile.

Paul Graham once wrote, "When you stop eating jam, fruit starts to taste better."

I have just learned that the converse is also true. When you start eating fruit, jam just doesn't cut it anymore.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Your calling

During the course of my teaching at B Schools, usually after class when I am chatting with students, a question that comes up with regularity is, "How do I find my calling?" I find myself forever in awe of the 24 year-olds who are already contemplating this problem. At that age, the question I was grappling with was no loftier than, "How do I make more money?" or at best, "What do I want to do for a living?"

There is perhaps no silver bullet, no framework, no template, to find the answer to this question, but here is the closest I got to a process that might work. Actually it is more a question to ponder over. My personal experience is that one's answer to this question evolves over time - so you might want to stick with it.

Ponder this: What would you do if / when money is no object?

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

HOG

I went riding with a Harley Group on Sunday and tried my hand at the Harley Davidson Street 750 and the Iron 883. Riding a Harley is completely different experience vis-a-vis riding a street-sport and it is nothing if not memorable.

First, there is that THUMP-THUMP when you thumb the starter. Each spark fired ignition of the air-fuel mixture in each of its twin cylinders makes itself known - both to your auditory sense and to your butt, and your palms, and your feet, wherever in fact, any part of your anatomy is in contact with the machine. The next is noise the gearshift makes when you prod the shifter: 'THUNK'. Third, as you rev the engine, the vibrations make themselves felt on the insides of your thighs where you grab the fuel tank. That can be fun for a while, I suppose. And all this is before you have even set off.

The real experience begins when you twist the throttle and the bike leaps forward leaving you hanging on for dear life from the handle bars as the savage acceleration throws the rest of your body back. Then there is that macho feeling when you try to manhandle the bike to get it to turn, all while your left foot is stomping the shifter trying to shift down and your right foot is frantically prodding the rear brake pedal which was probably designed in 1903 and last revised in 1943. In desperation you yank at the front brake lever and this produces a result that is completely unexpected; for the bike comes to a complete halt without drama and your blood reaches your brain again leaving you wondering why your heart rate had gone up at all. It is the one component on the 20th century machine that was designed in the 21st century and made by people who know what brakes are for and what they are supposed to do and how. I would not be surprised one bit if the front brakes have been sourced from Akebono. These are the folks who make the brakes for the Shinkansen Bullet Train of Japan, and - let me see if this might be a good place to slide this in here - for some Yamahas.

Interesting experience then, all-in-all. One thing is for certain, the Harley Davidson Iron 883 and the Yamaha R3 are as alike as chalk and cheese. Which is which depends on who you ask. Let me just say that I am very very happy with my acquisition.

But for that odd day when I wake up with a devil-may-care attitude and feeling more than a little adventurous, I wonder...

Monday, November 16, 2015

The new face of war

It used to be that countries went to war against each other. The fronts were known and the agenda was announced.

Clearly, the situation has changed. Ever since Osama bin Laden and his henchmen flew civilian aircraft into the twin towers in New York on 9-11-2001, it has been that individuals can now wage war against entire nations.

26-11in Mumbai and 13-11 in Paris are recurring example of this new war. That a few people can stroll into a city, spray bullets at people who they have nothing against and then blow themselves up is strange phenomenon that is beyond comprehension. They make no ransom demands, they do not expect to make any money or gain freedom for someone, and most bafflingly, they do not even expect to 'win'. They know that the end is death. One of the explosions outside Stade de France had only one casualty - the suicide bomber - who caused no other damage. Yet the teenagers had the gumption to push a button that blew the explosive charges strapped to their own body. They did not even wish to be claimed as victors or heroes. Their own end came before they could witness what they had done.

What motivates these people? There is clearly no win-lose possibility here. The victims lose their lives and the perpetrators also lose their lives. Lose-lose is the only possible outcome. Why would anyone play this game?

Sunday, November 15, 2015

France's response

President Hollande has categorically stated that yesterday IS declared war against France and that France's response against the IS will be merciless and pitiless.

On the one hand I admire the conviction of the leader of a country to clearly identify and acknowledge the situation, to call a spade a spade and to promise retaliation, something that another country under similar circumstances has been either unable or unwilling to do.

On the other hand, I have been struggling to grapple with how one could wage war against an enemy that is fragmented and has no specific location, and worse, has no qualms about taking their own people hostage or making human shields of their own civilians. The civilized world's weapons of war are designed to work against an enemy who presents a defined front. Even the most modern drones and laser sharp precision are never completely effective against an enemy that is amorphous and growing. The new enemy is like a virus for it affects your own body. IS clearly has sympathizers within France and Belgium and the UK - people who like the said virus can stay dormant for an indeterminate amount of time only to be activated by some unknown event and proceed to wreak havoc on the host.

I find one part of me wishing that France's response is more than political rhetoric, and yet another part of me hopes that it will remain the response of a civilized nation, not the wrath of Anakin Skywalker who could just as easily kill women and children.

How does one reconcile this paradox, where civility itself shackles the hands that hold the weapons of retaliation?

Brennt Paris?

:'-(

Friday, November 13, 2015

Golf-club memberships

Golf club memberships are options that give you the right to access the property for the privilege of shelling out more money across the life of the membership.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Rocking trains

While I was reading about the Shinkansen on the internet  few days ago, some links led me to the wiki article about the Pendolino tilting train developed by FIAT of Italy. The Pendolino gets its name from Pendolo - Italian for pendulum and the suffix ino as in bambino or topolino.

The Pendolino design has since been evaluated by multiple train operators in many countries including RENFE of Spain, Cisalpina of Switzerland, PKP of Poland, Ceske Drahy of the Czech Republic and Virgin Trains of the UK. Spanish CAF (translated: Construction & Auxiliary of Railways) and Bombardier transportation of Canada have developed their own tilting trains as has the engineering team that builds the Shinkansen.

There are essentially three different approaches that engineers have taken to get the train to tilt as it goes into a corner. The Pendolino uses hydraulic actuators to push up one side of the car while the bogie remains flat with respect to the rail. The Spanish Talgo Pendular adopts a passive suspension and the Shinkansen uses airbags that inflate to raise the side on the outside of the curve.

All of these approaches were attempts at trying to achieve higher speeds on regular, i.e. Non HSR tracks.

I was under the impression that tilting trains helped the train travel faster along the same curve than a non tilting train without the risk of derailment. Not true. The only way to get trains to travel faster around a curve is to bank the track, i.e. raise the outside rail so that the bogie is inclined into the curve. Clearly, you can only go so far with raising one of the two rails without running the risk of a slower travelling train tipping over. In Japan, an early warning system against earthquakes on the Shinkansen brings the train to a complete halt in case tremors are detected and you definitely wouldn't want to stop on a part of the track where the incline is 45 degrees.

The trains tilt not to travel faster around a banked track but to make the travel more comfortable for travellers. For some strange reason, humans wearing formal clothes prefer to be pushed into their seats as against being pushed into the armrest, and tilting the train achieves this objective. In denim jeans and T-shirts, the same humans want to feel the G Forces laterally, transversely and longitudinally. We want to rock. It is for those times that we have roller coasters.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Ayn Rand

This is going to be a long post. But then a post in defence of Atlas Shrugged can hardly be expected to be short.

Someone sent me a link to this article on Salon.com about Ayn Rand and her Magnum Opus. It is one of those articles that cause you to think again about a topic you have always felt strongly about. Two out of those ten points even make sense, I have to concede. However, if one reads the article carefully, one notices that a number of things appear to be quoted out of context. And in at least one case, the article seems to reach a conclusion from a quotation in the book that is completely baffling.

I can understand why a number of people do not think highly of Ayn Rand. She was possibly a misogynist and favoured smoking and did not think much of the rights of Native Americans. However, her thoughts on Capitalism and her critique of Socialism have been no less than erudite.

Let me attempt to argue my case against the shortcomings of the article in Salon.com
As I read that article I noticed that compared to what I remember of the book, some of the arguments in the article seem to be taking rather generous liberties with quoting Atlas Shrugged out of context. Let me elaborate.

Point number 2
The Salon article only says, "Dagny pulled rank and ordered them (the train engineer and conductor) to drive through the red light." While this is technically true, the article has conveniently left out the context under which she chooses this course of action. The book had set up enough context to say that the train engineers guessed that the red signal was most likely faulty but nobody was willing to take the responsibility for any next steps. They were perfectly willing to just sit there and wait forever. Dagny heard them out and then took the call to move forward at a safe speed. Somebody needed to take action and Dagny did.

In the same point, the Salon article refers to Dagny's defence of the 100 mph speed of the first train on the John Galt Line, where Dagny says that if it were not for public opinion, the speed might as well have been a slower 65 mph, implying that they were going to travel at 100 mph to prove the mettle of Rearden metal as it were.

The article conveniently leaves out the context that the moochers worked very hard to ensure that Rearden Metal was discredited and not allowed for use anywhere and when Dagny, after trying hard to buy regular steel and failing, took the call to build the John Galt line with it, they tried to label the John Galt Line as unsafe. The book further sets up the context that Dagny and Rearden had enough confidence in the Rearden Metal rail, and the courage, to ride the train themselves. If others were unsure of the safety, nobody was putting a gun to their head and making them ride the train.

I do have to admit, that there is not enough in the book that talks about safety testing of Rearden Metal under different stress test conditions. But then the book was written in a different day and age. Countries back then thought it was perfectly acceptable to put lead in gasoline and CFCs in aerosol cans and watches and clock faces were regularly painted with radium for the glow-in-the-dark effect. Drugs were administered for maladies before side effects were fully understood. Pre-launch testing is a rather recent invention. I am tempted to point out, however, that Atlas Shrugged is a novel, not a text-book on product launch procedure.

Point number 3
The Salon article implies that the Equalization of Opportunities bill was passed by a majority of congress where the elected representatives were honouring their pre-election promises. That is not how the book sets up the context. The book clearly states that vested interests, like James Taggart,  exert undue influence over the powers that be to have the bill passed for their benefit - to actually prevent superior competition on their turf. Isn't is this bill that causes the Phoenix Durango line to close down just in time for the launch of the John Galt line? The salon article twists this around completely and presents the bill as benevolent and anti-monopoly when the book sets up the context to show the bill as being anti-competition.

Point number 4
The article says that Ayn Rand insinuates that the government has never invented anything or done any good for anyone. Umm - not quite. Ayn Rand says the State Science Institute as portrayed in Atlas Shrugged had not invented anything.

Point number 5
The article suggests that Francisco slaps Dagny when she makes a joke he doesn't like. If I remember correctly, he slaps her when she suggests that she should act incompetent so that others might like her; because it is her competence that they seem to resent. The very idea is so abhorrent to Rand that her pen possibly convulsed with violence.

I do have to admit that in most of Ayn Rand's books there is something very warped about how men treat women - whether it is the scene in Fountainhead where Howard Roark rapes Dominique Francon or the scene in Atlas Shrugged where Hank Rearden takes Dagny almost by force and then calls her a whore. There is definitely something weird going on in Ayn Rand's head here - I won't even try to contest this point.

Point number 6
The article says that Ayn Rand suggests that all natural resources are limitless.
I don't remember it that way at all. I believe the book goes to some length to show that Ellis Wyatt had to work hard to figure out a way to extract oil from hard to get to places like - ahem - Shale.
 
Similarly, John Galt worked hard to figure out a way to get energy out of thin air WITHOUT having to burn fossil fuels like - ahem again - Solar Photo Voltaic cells. Check out the youtube video of the launch of the Tesla Power-wall and hear what Elon Musk has to say about this infinite source of power that shows up every morning and just works.

The article refers sarcastically to Ayn Rand's philosophy that human ingenuity can overcome any problem if only the government would get out of the way.
 
Given the rapid development in efficiency of Solar PV cells and that we manage to make our devices and appliances more efficient / less energy hungry, I do not see any reason to argue against Ayn Rand's claim that human ingenuity can overcome any problem. We have already managed to find solutions to various diseases, growing enough food for 7 billion people and putting a man on the moon and bringing him back safely. We have put telescopes in orbit and have sent probes to Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto. Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 have left the solar system and are still sending signals back; one powered by a solar array and another powered by a small device providing nuclear energy.
 
Incidentally, most of this scientific advance has been achieved in the free world, where the government does indeed get out of the way.
 
Point number 7.
Again the article does not provide the context completely.
Dagny and Rearden have been driving through what could be termed as an industrial wilderness - an area that was once productive but has now decayed. The 20th century Motor Company once provided gainful employment to people like John Galt who were producing the best work they could. It was only when Ivy Starnes instituted the principle of  'from each according to his ability to each according to his needs' that the once great company floundered and eventually died.
Looking now at the rust-belt around Detroit one cannot but notice the decline from the glory days of General Motors to its bankruptcy of 2009. Given that a large part of the problem was precipitated by the United Auto Worker (UAW) negotiated Jobs Bank program, which mandated that any unionized employee could never be fired and would continue to draw upto 90% of his salary even if there was no work for him, I would say that Ayn Rand has been quite prescient.
Point number 9 is especially twisted.
I did a double take when I read the Salon author's interpretation of what Francisco said in the quote provided, “Dagny, there’s nothing of any importance in life — except how well you do your work. Nothing. Only that. Whatever else you are, will come from that. It’s the only measure of human value. All the codes of ethics they’ll try to ram down your throat are just so much paper money put out by swindlers to fleece people of their virtues. The code of competence is the only system of morality that’s on a gold standard.”
What kind of a person reads 'rich people are more valuable than poor people' from that quote?


Point number 1 and 10.
Good people look good and bad people are unattractive. 
Fair point, but just a sign of the times. Ayn Rand is not the only author or film-maker of that era to be guilty of this.I suspect story telling and movie making had not evolved enough to appreciate that audiences were intelligent enough to figure out the nuances of good and bad without the protagonists and antagonists being made to wear explicit masks to showcase their character.

Similarly, the point about smoking being revered as laudatory is clearly unacceptable today, but then again, those were different times. I remember movies from my own teen age when the hero smoked cigarettes to signify 'cool'; consider Deewar and Trishul or any number of English movies.

I would appreciate a fair critique of any book, even Atlas Shrugged perhaps, but to quote out of context appears to be a rather sly way of making a point.

Atlas Shrugged - The Movies

When the first Atlas Shrugged movie was released in 2011, I was waiting for it, for it had been more than a decade in the making. It was put into production on a tight budget because the tenure on the rights was about to expire. The film bombed at a box office earning less than $5 million against the production cost of $20 million; but then it was a labour of love for the producer. He went on to produce part 2 and part 3 even when it was clear that he was going to lose money. Unfortunately, the films got progressively worse, with the third part being labelled by some critics as atrocious.

I would recommend watching the first part if you are an Ayn Rand fan and if you remember the book well. For people who haven't read the book, the movies are likely to leave you wondering what the hell it was supposed to be all about.

You might want to watch the second part if you are a die-hard Ayn Rand fan. You can definitely skip the third installment.


Monday, November 9, 2015

Getting traction in learning

I watched a documentary on YouTube about the development of the Shinkansen, the Japanese Bullet train. The engineers faced a number of challenges in trying to get trains to travel faster. Chief among them was traction. Steel wheels moving on steel rails are clearly not going to provide as much traction as rubber on asphalt. The problem is compounded if you have super-powerful electric locomotives trying to put down more than ten thousand horses across a contact patch that is no more than a few square centimeters on each wheel. What you get is wheel spin, the phenomenon you witness when you watch a drag racer spin its rear tyres at the starting line, effectively converting a lot of rubber into a lot of smoke.

One way to solve the problem is to increase weight on the driven wheels, but this can be counterproductive to payload, the stuff that people are paying you to haul. The other method, known to automobile users for some time, is what the Shinkansen engineers adopted: All-Wheel-Drive.

Just as a 4x4 moves off the line a lot more efficiently, in terms of traction, than a front wheel drive, the Shinkansen employs multiple drive units, electric motors at almost all the wheels to get the train moving along quickly. This increased traction aids rapid acceleration, especially important if you are planning on stopping every few kilometers and yet hoping to achieve average speeds in excess of 160 kmph. Incidentally, these EMUs or Electric Multiple Units are not unique to the Shinkansen. Most urban metro systems, where rapid acceleration after multiple stops is important, use EMUs. Most long distance trains, on the other hand deploy a locomotive at the front end to haul the free-wheeling carriages along. The bullet shaped ends of the Shinkansen trains, then, are not locomotives at all, but control cabins with a nose for aerodynamic efficiency to reduce air resistance.

Allow me a metaphor to connect this discussion to the topic of today's blog-post. Teachers are like train systems; some prefer the lecture method, where the professors do all the work, like the locomotive trying to haul the freewheeling carriages along. The best ones are like the Shinkansen, facilitating learning through ensuring engagement, where the carriages pull their own weight. These best ones see their job as only removing the resistance to learning. You know which system accelerates faster.



Sunday, November 8, 2015

The passing of television

When will TV go the way of the telegram?

When we all have access to the internet with speeds that allow watching of video without buffering delays at prices that match satellite TV subscriptions.


Goin' 'lectric Part Deux

I got stuck in traffic on Friday. On my motorcycle. I couldn't believe it. Traffic is getting so bad that even a motorcycle cannot weave through. I need something smaller. A bicycle. But there is a problem. I don't like to show up at a meeting with a sweat stained shirt. So we need an electric bicycle. But those have always looked dorky. Until now.

You see, thanks to this new invention called kickstarter, smart, driven people with a great idea can now find the means to take those great ideas and turn them into great products. The flykly is the result of a kickstarter campaign. And because I know that most of you are not going to take the trouble of clicking on that hyperlink in the previous sentence, I feel compelled to put a picture here.





What makes the flykly an amazing product is that you can convert your existing bicycle into an electric just by swapping out your rear wheel and swapping in the flykly. The entire gizmo is crammed into the hub of the rear wheel; everything; the electric motor, the lithium ion batteries, the controller, the bluetooth stuff to talk to your smartphone and the torque sensors.

The way the flykly wheel works is that the moment the torque sensor senses your pedaling, it powers up the hub motor to assist you. It also has regenerative braking to charge those batteries when you are slowing down. You can also charge it from your wall socket if you don't care to slow down very much. The motor assist will give you a top speed of 25 kmph, which is the limit in Europe for a vehicle to be classified as an electric bicycle and not a moped.

What I find most compelling about this electric bicycle argument, especially after flykly has solved the problem of not having to lug a 20 kg lead acid battery around with you, is that if you use a bicycle to get around, you are not transporting 2 tons of metal just so you can move 70 kilos.

I always knew the Dutch were great engineers, after all they have devised a system to pump out the sea from under their feet every hour of every day just so they can live below sea level and stay dry doing it; but their wisdom with using bicycles has only now hit me.

Honourable mention must also be made of the Copenhagen Wheel in this article for it is a similar product of similar design and it has been turning heads since 2009. And if they had put it into production and were able to deliver it in time to people who have paid for it, this article might even have been about it.

Friday, November 6, 2015

Diesel Generator sets

This article in the Indian Express states that the total installed capacity of Diesel Generator (DG) units for power backup in the country now add up to about 90 000 MW. That is 36 % of total installed capacity in the country or about half of installed capacity in large power stations in the country.

It gets worse. The installed DG capacity is growing at somewhere between 5000 MW to 8000 MW every year. For context, the largest Hydro-electric power project in the country generates 1920 MW. The DG capacity added every year is more than the cumulative nuclear and solar capacity added in the country each year. The total global market for installation of DG sets is expected to be US$ 68 Billion by 2020.

Let us think about that for a minute. Electricity is the most portable of energies. You can generate it anywhere in the country and use it anywhere else instantly if you have a grid in place. The problem with most developing nations is that demand exceeds supply and in under-developed nations, that there is no grid, because the political rulers have used the money to buy property in London. Or in the case of Lebanon, the mafia has found out that sale of power from localized DG sets is so lucrative that they actively protect their turf and prevent the government agencies from installing step-down transformers to distribute the power generated in large power stations.

Some people are starting to say that power generation in India is not really lagging that far behind demand. I wonder how much of the Lebanon problem is at play here in India.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

3 degrees of complexity

I found out yesterday that there is a difference between complicated and complex, terms that I had been using interchangeably. The book I am currently reading, The Checklist Manifesto, tries to address the issue of whether checklists will work for any level of complexity in situations we deal with in our professional lives. The author refers to a paper by Sholom Glouberman and Brenda Zimmerman which categorizes problems as simple, complicated, and complex.

Simple situations are those that have been addressed multiple times and sometimes tools and processes are available to reduce errors further. An example would be baking a cake; if you have the recipe and follow the instructions faithfully, it is easy to imagine that you would end up with an acceptable cake. The process is replicable and the availability of moulds and ready-mixes makes the process easier and the outcome more predictable.

Complicated problems contain subsets of simple problems but are not merely reducible to them; there are issues of coordination and specialized expertise. Sending a spacecraft to the moon is a complicated problem. However, once the problem has been solved, the solution can be replicated if we develop rigourous processes; these are likely to assure a high degree of success if followed faithfully.

Complex problems, the highest order in their classification, can encompass both simple and complicated sub-problems but may not be reducible to either. There is the added complexity brought in by uniqueness of situations, subjects and objects that makes replication of success difficult to assure. Consider the problem of raising a child. One can apply oneself and put in a lot of effort and have tremendous success with one child. But all the expertise, inherent and learned during the process cannot assure that success can be replicated in raising another child with the same process.

Expertise can contribute to success in complex situations, but it is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for success.

Outcomes will always remain uncertain with complex problems.

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Pre-flight checklists

I have started reading 'The Checklist Manifesto' by Dr. Atul Gawande. An accomplished surgeon, Dr. Gawande has started the book with stories of how lives were saved and sometimes almost lost because the team in the OR followed strict procedure or failed to, respectively.

He also tells the story of how pilot checklists were born. It was at Wright Airfield in Dayton Ohio in 1935 where the US Army and US Army Air Corps were evaluating the next generation long range bomber for the US Military. The Boeing B299 had already impressed the evaluation team till then, outclassing the competition in terms of range, speed and payload.

The military brass was there just to complete the formality. On that day, the sleek aircraft roared down the runway and took the skies and climbed sharply to 300 feet; at which point two of its four engines stalled and the plane tipped on its wing and crashed to the ground killing 2 of its 5 crew members.

The investigation revealed that there was no mechanical failure and the crash was due to pilot error. The B299, one newspaper reported, was too much aircraft for one man to fly. The pilot was required to control the air fuel mixture to its four engines separately and to control the pitch on its constant speed propellers individually and to watch engine temperature and oil pressure on those four engines individually all in addition to keeping an eye on altitude, air speed, rudder, elevators, ailerons and flaps. The pilot on that day had missed releasing a new locking mechanism on the elevators keeping them angling the aircraft upwards until it hit stall speed.

The Air Corps ordered the next best aircraft from Douglas but the Army ordered a few from Boeing from Research purposes using a legal loophole. The army delivered these planes to the 2nd Bombardment group at Langley field in Virginia and launched a study to figure out how to fly this plane more reliably. This team came up with the idea of pre-flight checklists.

The checklist has been saving lives in Operation Theaters and in aluminium cylinders shooting through the sky ever since.

Incidentally, after the US Army figured out that the 4 engines behemoth was indeed fly-able, they went on the order more than 12000 of the Boeing  Flying Fortress for World War II.

More stuff from this amazing book to follow. Watch this space.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Wearing a tie and doing it right.

We visited a Business School campus for recruitment the other day and among the candidates were a few guys who insisted on wearing their tie loose around their neck with the collar open. And this is for the interview.

Call me old fashioned, but this seemed a little callous. Perhaps they did not want the job and the college insisted that they apply, but they said they really wanted to work for an analytics company. I suggested they could take off the jacket and tie but they said they were comfortable.

I wonder what it takes for MBAs to take a hint.

Monday, November 2, 2015

November short

The problem with religious authority begins not so much when they tell us how we should behave but when they start to assume control over how we should think.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Global warming

I read in the newspaper today that this November is likely to be the hottest November ever and the onset of winter is expected only in late December. A senior from B-School who lives in Europe who hates the cold is not complaining, but the 10800 citizens of the tiny island nation of Tuvalu are already feeling the heat. The rising sea levels have seen the salt water enter the fresh water aquifers and the primary source of fresh water on the island is now rainwater harvesting. They are facing a bleak future. For some others though, the future is already here. The first refugees of rising sea levels have already migrated from the Carteret Islands of Papua New Guinea  to relocate to island of Bougainville after salt water inundated their crops and infiltrated their fresh water wells. This newfound safety on another island may be fleeting though as scientists believe that most of their islands will be uninhabitable by 2016 and completely submerged as early as 2020.

Yet others have come up with a more novel solution. President Anote Tong of Kiribati, another small island nation in the south pacific has bought land in Fiji in preparation for the day that Kiribati will have to be abandoned due to rising sea water levels.

Closer to the western world, the Alaskan island of Kivalina is under threat too with sea water levels rising at a rate that gives the 400 residents of the island just under a decade to think about where they wish to relocate to.

I suspect that even for the nay-sayers, the evidence is going to soon become difficult to ignore, but they have another line of defense. There is no proof they say that global warming is anthropogenic. The Earth has been subjected to warming and cooling cycles for eons and some groups actually claim that another ice age is around the corner. Time to turn on the oil fired heaters for them I suppose.